Lisbon in October (2027): Weather, Prices, Nazaré's Big Waves & Things to Do

⭐ Best-value October window, based on our hotel sample: from about 20 October to the end of the month. Medians on those dates were about €236 to €240, against €255 on Saturday 2 October. The difference is small, and this is a price observation, not a weather claim; on average, rain becomes more likely as autumn goes on.

ℹ️ These are our editorial assessments of how October conditions affect each part of a trip, not review scores. Temperature and rainfall figures are climate normals from IPMA, Portugal's weather service, for 1991 to 2020.

💰 October 2027 hotel rates in our sample (central Lisbon, 4-star):
Weeknights: median ~€238–247 (middle half roughly €183–381) · Saturdays: median ~€236–255 (middle half roughly €189–346)
From a sample of 42 to 48 four-star hotels within 2 km of Baixa, quoted on 2 October 2026 for one night for two adults, room only, before taxes, on ten October 2027 dates. Only about half as many hotels returned rates as for September, so these medians are less certain. Lisbon's tourist tax of €4 per person per night (maximum seven nights) is added on top. Rates change daily, so check live prices for your dates.

October is a transition month in Lisbon, and the right choice depends on how you feel about rain. Days are mild, around 23°C, and many are still bright and warm enough for lunch outdoors, but IPMA's normals put rain on about 9 days, so a week-long trip will usually see some wet weather. The sea is still close to its warmest, the hills are comfortable to walk, and the big-wave season at Nazaré is starting.

The honest tradeoff is that October is not the bargain its shoulder-season reputation suggests. In our sample, hotel rates held at late-September levels. We would book October for walking, Sintra, food and fado, pack a rain jacket alongside summer clothes, and plan at least one indoor afternoon for the wet days.

Temperature

IPMA's 1991 to 2020 climate normals put the October average high at about 23°C and the low at about 15°C, almost four degrees cooler by day than September. Warm spells still happen: the highest October temperature in IPMA's 1991 to 2020 record is 33.4°C. Most days suit a T-shirt at midday and a light layer in the evening.

Rain Pattern

October is the first wet month of autumn. It averages about 111 mm of rain on roughly 9 days, against 39 mm on about 4 days in September. Even so, with rain on about 9 days, most October days are dry, so a wet morning does not have to mean a lost trip. On wet days the limestone and basalt pavements of the old town become slippery; shoes with grip matter more than an umbrella.

Daylight and Outdoor Conditions

Sunrise moves from about 07:31 to about 08:00 across the month, and sunset from about 19:21 to about 18:40. When the clocks go back on Sunday 31 October, sunrise jumps to about 07:01 and sunset to about 17:39. Station averages from the German Weather Service put October at about 196 hours of sunshine, against about 260 in September.

Our October sample was smaller than for earlier months, because fewer hotels had loaded rates this far ahead, so we also compared the same hotels across dates.

1 to 15 October: Republic Day and Fátima

The median for Saturday 2 October was about €255, the dearest date we sampled, and about €246 on Monday 4 October, the eve of the Republic Day holiday. Midweek medians were about €240 on 6 October and €247 on 13 October, the day of the Fátima pilgrimage, and Saturday 9 October was about €240.

16 to 31 October: slightly cheaper

Medians eased to about €236 to €241 for the rest of the month. Most people do not realise how little October falls from September: on the same 41 hotels, the mid-October median was about €241, against €223 on 15 September, €251 on 22 September and €174 on 25 August. If price matters more than weather, late August, not October, was the value window in our sample. Remember the tourist tax of €4 per person per night on top of the room rate.

The start of Nazaré's big-wave season

Under two hours' drive north of Lisbon, Praia do Norte at Nazaré produces some of the largest surfable waves in the world, driven by an underwater canyon that focuses Atlantic swell. The big-wave season runs roughly from October to March, and the largest swells are most typical from November to February. The World Surf League's competition window for the 2025/26 season ran from 1 November 2025 to 31 March 2026, according to the World Surf League; the 2026/27 window had not been officially announced when we checked. October is early in the season, so a big day is possible but far from certain. If seeing the waves matters, keep the day flexible and check the swell forecast a few days ahead; our day trips from Lisbon guide covers the Nazaré tours.

Fátima on 13 October

The anniversaries of the Fátima apparitions on the 13th of each month from May to October draw pilgrims, and 13 October, the last of the year, is one of the largest gatherings. In 2027 it falls on a Wednesday. If your day trip includes Fátima, go that day deliberately to see the pilgrimage or choose another date if you dislike crowds.

The Lisbon Marathon

In 2026, the EDP Lisbon Marathon ran on Saturday 10 October, from Carcavelos along the coast and the river to Praça do Comércio, with the half marathon on Sunday 11 October, according to the organiser, Maratona Clube de Portugal. The 2027 date had not been published when we checked. If your trip falls on race weekend, expect road closures along the riverside and in Baixa on the morning of the races.

October's downsides are mostly about rain and price.

A guaranteed dry trip

Rain falls on about 9 days in an average October. Open-top buses, tuk-tuks and river trips are the activities most affected, so keep them flexible and book cancellable options. Our is Lisbon safe guide covers the practical advice for slippery cobbles on wet days.

A budget trip

Our sample's medians were about €236 to €255 a night, no lower than September. If price matters most, our Lisbon in March guide covers the same city for considerably less.

Supervised beach days

The sea is still mild, but lifeguards finish at the end of September; in 2026 the season at Cascais and Costa da Caparica ended on 30 September. Swim only in calm conditions, and treat Atlantic swell with respect. Our Lisbon in September guide covers the last weeks of the bathing season.

• The Gulbenkian Museum on a wet day: one of the city's great art collections, with gardens for when the rain stops.
• The National Tile Museum: five centuries of Portuguese azulejos in a former convent east of Alfama.
• Time Out Market in the evening: a covered food hall at Cais do Sodré for a quick dinner on a wet night.
• Sunset at the miradouros: sunset moves from about 19:21 to 18:40, then to about 17:40 after the clocks change.

• Pack for two seasons: a T-shirt for mild afternoons and a waterproof layer for the rainy days.
• Wear shoes with grip: the polished calçada pavements of the old town are slippery when wet.
• Book cancellable outdoor tours: keep open-air tours flexible so a wet day can be swapped.
• Choose your Fátima date deliberately: 13 October is one of the year's largest pilgrimages; go for it or avoid it.
• Keep a Nazaré day flexible: if you want to see big waves, check the swell forecast a few days ahead.
• Check the marathon date: race-weekend road closures affect the riverside and Baixa.
• Remember the clock change: clocks go back on Sunday 31 October, and sunset moves to about 17:40.
• Plan Belém for a day other than Monday: Jerónimos Monastery is closed on Mondays.
• Budget for the tourist tax: Lisbon adds €4 per person per night, up to seven nights, on top of the room rate.
• Visiting at a different time of year? Our Lisbon in September guide covers the month before, with the warmest sea and less rain, our Lisbon in August guide covers the cheaper late-summer weeks, and our Lisbon in November guide covers the month after, when hotel rates fall back.